Population projections shifting from north to south
The 2011 census has begun to have an impact on projections for future population growth with today’s release of interim 2011 based projections. The biggest change is in the regional distribution of population increases: London and the South of England are forecast to see bigger increases in population than previously projected while the North and Midlands are projected to see smaller increases than previously projected.
Overall, percentage growth in the population is broadly similar although the new projections have a larger increase (4.6million vs. 4.4million) in people over the next ten years due to a higher base.
There’s no doubt that the projections will continue to be revised and, importantly, the ONS also note that:
These projections are known to over-project the number of births at a national level. This particularly affects some areas where the 2011 population estimates have higher numbers of women aged 16-44 than in the 2010 estimates. Therefore caution should be used in the application of these projections for planning purposes at the younger ages
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